Aviendha's Visions

[Leira Galene]

So I'm curious to know what others think.

Will Aviendha's vision of the fate of the Aiel come true now? Some small things have been changed...

Spoiler

Rhuarc dying, being included in the Dragon's Peace, etc.

But is that really enough? A lot of this, like the Aiel Wise Ones brought up in the book, hinges on how the ter'angreal in Rhuidean work. I'm not convinced that they've successfully managed to change the future of the Aiel, seeing as in these books prophecies seem, to a certain extent, inevitable.

But I would very much like for them to have changed it. If so, what do you think will happen to them?

 

[Murun]

Oh, I wouldn't call those changes "small" - after the Dragon's peace, they are no longer the "savages", the outsiders, but part of the system of nations, with a defined role in it. Some of them will settle and stay in the wetlands, while still having their base in the threefold land - one could see many advantages to this. They're smart and will adopt those wetlander skills and methods they find useful, while keeping most of their distinctive culture.
In the books, we see them mostly as warriors - but Aiel society has a foundation of work in agriculture, crafts and trade. There is potential for a rapid modernization - I can't help thinking of what the Japanese did during the later half of the 19th century. And let the Wise Ones be wise enough to keep them out of military adventures ...
IMHO the ter'angreal in Rhuidean issues a severe warning - and the Wise Ones will see that it is heeded. Under this condition, I see quite a prosperous future for the Aiel.

 

[Leira Galene]

I hope you're right. I like the analogy to the Japanese, and I agree that the Aiel are a lot more than just warriors. That is probably key to helping them to survive-- they just have to see themselves as something more. I guess a lot of it also hinges on how the Seanchan act in a couple generations or so. Hopefully they would be good :P

 

[Lok Enkee]

I'm not sure if the Aiel are in the clear. The main reason for their downfall was them starting a war with the Seanchan, mainly over the Wise Ones that were kept as Damane. Though the Aiel are now acting as peacekeepers, I'm not sure it mentioned what would happen if anyone made a grievance with the Aiel themselves.

 

[Murun]

Oh, I don't think the future of the Aiel will be safe or easy - but neither is there a certain doom for them. There are chances and opportunities, and let's just hope they will make the best of them. Survival as an ethnic group with a distinct cultural identity will demand changes, one basic aspect being a certain opening towards other peoples in the Wetlands and an adaption to their standards - if possible, without too much of a chauvinistic attitude stressing the superiority of ji'e'toh.

As I see it, there are three main tasks ahead of them: (1) building a unified Aiel nation (where the rivalries between clans are just a matter of jokes and teasing) - this seems to be well on its way. (2) Building some kind of permanent political institutions - this is a future task they may not even be aware of and which will meet considerable resistance. Practical necessities may lead the way to it. (3) Overcoming the exclusive focus on fighting as a way to gain ji (and social status). Once more, circumstances may pull in that direction. There will be more to be said on these points.

However, first let me say that re-reading the relevant passages in ToM and AMoL proves to be somewhat disappointing when you want to learn about the future of the Aiel.

In ToM, it's only 17 year after the Last Battle, but a change of generations seems to have taken place. Aviendha is no longer around (well, we all must awake from the dream, but sad news for her admirers - count me among them -, and politically unfortunate), nor is Fortuona, who is compared favorably to her successor. The Dragon's children have risen to a probably undue prominence.
"The spears grow restless. The Aiel are not meant to grow fat in lush lands, tending crops. We are warriors", says one of the clan chiefs. They resent being excluded from the Dragon's Peace (but see it as an opportunity for war to be taken), and they doubt they have any other purpose than war. "The Aiel must have a purpose ...We are useless as we are ...", says Janduin, one of Aviendha's sons. So they decide to fight against the Seanchan. Padra has mixed feelings about this - there will be much death - but also much honor. - There is a very fine line between glory/greatness (which has negative connotations throughout the series - Lanfear temps the boys with it, Couladin promises it to the Shaido, the Horn of Valere allows no thought of it) and what the Aiel call "honor"; young people are likely to confuse these concepts. (For an additional example, see the end of ch. 15 in TGS, where one of the maidens claims that the car'a'carn should lead the Aiel to glory, and Amys reprimands her: "You talk like a Shaido". This seems to be one of the moral messages of the series: don't do anything for show or for glory, just do what needs doing.)

The solution that Rand is pushed to in AMoL seems tailored to redress just this situation shown in the vision. The Aiel are in the peace treaty (and honor says that treaties have to be kept), they have a purpose, and being kind of a police force will give them the opportunity to do "what we know how to do" (Ronan in ToM), at least from time to time. Not everyone will grow fat tending crops. Specifically, they will not attack the Seanchan on their own.

Grievances against them? Well, this certainly will happen, but they would come from specific groups or nations, while others would support their role in the political system. They will listen to complaints, perhaps make amends when they think it is due, and for the most part just say "we did as was agreed on".

But all one learns from it is that things will not happen exactly like in Aviendha's vision. But what else will happen?

After the Last Battle, the number of Aiel will be severely reduced - a casualty rate of 60% of those that fought would seem optimistic. For quite some time, they will be in no position for any military adventures. - Moreover, they have fought alongside soldiers from every nation now on the continent, including the Seanchan, and veterans of the LB should know that warfare has changed beyond the point where individual physical ability and a number of standard tactics could decide the outcome of battles. To go against the Seanchan, they would need lots of skilled channelers, improved military technology and probably an alliance with some other nation(s) - things not easily found.
That those veterans do not have more influence is one of the implausible elements of Aviendha's vision. Another is that basically the clan chiefs seem to regard the war against the Seanchan like one of the blood feuds between clans, where both sides had shared traditions and shared rules of engagement. They know that this is not the case - they are sure of their superiority in both moral and military terms - but they do not consider the consequences this has.

In a more likely future, clan chiefs will be chosen who are more thoughtful and cautious, able to draw lessons from what they experienced in the LB. (Hi, Gaul, once again ...) Having fought together will strengthen the unity of the clans, and so will intermarriage between them - steps towards an Aiel Nation. Having been comrades in arms will also change and improve relations to the wetlanders.
One cannot predict how well they will deal with the crises and shortages immediately after the LB - probably better than others, being used to living off the land, and there may also be resources to be had from the Threefold Land. The one Big Purpose fulfilled, probably many maidens will give up the spear, and there will likely be a baby boom - after wars there usually is.

The prophecies say that the Aiel will leave the Threefold Land "and take back what is theirs" (sorry, I quote that from memory) - whatever this means. For several reasons, this cannot happen in the short term - those who want to stay in the wetlands will for quite some years be dependent on the holds in the waste for food, seed and livestock. Given easy communication by gateways, there will be found advantages in being present in both places - not least also opportunities for trade (and there are merchants among the Aiel).
However, given their task as a police force, there must be a permanent presence in the wetlands - there is plenty of unclaimed land around, so this should be a lesser problem - but also a permanent political presence - people one can talk to and who can make binding decisions. There also will have to be negotiations and treaties - this tends towards a more formal organization beyond discussions among chiefs and Wise Ones. (Just think of putting things into writing, keeping records, etc.) Even if the Aiel may come to feel as one nation, they are still a society without a state, and social history tells that such societies take not well to external and internal changes. They will certainly not have kings - something like a Great Council with improved authority may do, and administrative structures would grow as circumstances demand.

So what about cultural identity, ji'e'toh and a distinctive way of life? I guess a lot of it will remain - if somewhat softened around the edges. Aviendha has some pertinent - if contradictory - thoughts on this (ToM, ch. 48):
"More and more she was coming to believe that tradition for the sake of tradition was foolishness. Good traditions - strong, Aiel traditions - taught the ways of ji'e'to, methods of survival."
I'd love to untangle this as follows: methods of survival will have to be found as need arises, they will have to be measured against ji'e'toh, and they will be become tradition themselves. Good Luck.

 

[Leira Galene]

Those are all really good points Murun. Clearly you did a lot more research than I did It seems to me that hopefully enough has been changed by the events in the book that their fate will change as well. Although, we do know for certain Aviendha will have her quads due to Min's visions. So that at least won't change.

 

[Almira ni'Caldazare]

Aviendha will do her best to make sure that the Aiel's fate is changed. You have to decide if fighting fate forces it to make sooner if fighting can change fate. I feel like the Pattern shows the future so that it can be changed.