Why I think the Seanchan should lose a stand up fight.

[Kaltorel]

Ok, this is something I have been thinking about for a while and I haven't seen anywhere on these forums. I haven't browsed all of them so maybe this has been addressed somewhere else. My theory is that the Seanchan should in no way stand a chance against the Randland channelers once The Last Battle is over and everyone has time to regroup and The Peace of the Dragon has passed. Simply put it comes down to a numbers game. If we assume that Seanchan and Randland have male and female channelers in roughly the same proportions and similar population levels then this should be the math as I see it for the female channelers.

Each continent begins with 1000 channelers.
The Seanchan gain 250 channelers due to their holdings in Randland. This also means Randland loses 250 channelers.

New Totals:
Seanchan: 1250
Randland: 750

Now we know that the Seanchan are not utilizing all of the channelers that they have at their disposal due to collaring women with the adam. I remember reading (correct me if I am wrong) that they actually were capturing the women who would touch the source on their own regardless, the ones with the spark born in them. They are not capturing the ones who can learn, they go on to become the sul'dam. I also remember Moiraine saying that about 1 in 4 women who can channel are born with the spark. So that brings the number of channelers that the Seanchan can bring to bear in a conflict down considerably to roughly a quarter of what they should be able to field based on total number of channelers under their dominion.

New Totals:
Seanchan:313
Randland:750

Now we see the Randland channelers take a significant numbers advantage since all of their channelers are free and can work together. The Seanchan basically have 624 channelers sitting on their duffs doing nothing and unable to participate in the fight. (1250 total - 313 damane = 937 sul'dam, 937 sul'dam - 313 damane to link with = 624 sul'dam without someone to link with) At the same time, all of the free channelers from Randland can work together and form circles thereby increasing their power. If each woman partners up with another woman they still outnumber the Seanchan by 62 channeling groups. Also assume that power roughly equals out over all of these people. So now the Randland channelers are all paired up and their power is somewhat amplified by the circles. We need to remember that all of these 375 circles that they have formed are now more powerful than the individual damane because remember they aren't drawing any power from the sul'dam that we know of. This hasn't even added in the power of the male channelers who can jump into the fray on the Randland side and can't, or would be collared and therefore have their numbers diminished on the Seanchan side. I know Aviendha's viewings from the pillars show the war being a bit of a piecemeal affair with nations falling one by one, but once the white tower and black tower join in I just can't see the numbers favoring the Seanchan because of the way they utilize their channelers. Any thoughts? Oh and thanks for reading my first post

 

[Toral Delvar]

The continent of Seanchan is much bigger than that if the Westlands and doesn't seem to have undergone the same decline, so the population is much bigger, probably an order of magnitude. To counter this, they only brought a proportion over, we don't really have much information on how big that was. A third point is that when Tylee arranged the collaring of 250-300 women, this was considered a major accomplishment, but nothing indicated that they had almost doubled their number of damane, so it is likely they have more. They seemed roughly evenly matched against the Asha'man when fighting outide Illian, but again, we don't know what proportion of the damane were in that fight, we also know that in the large army sent after Rodel there were barely half a dozen damane
Which is to say estimating numbers is extremely hard, but I agree with the argument that they should not be able to conquer. They shouldn't be able to collar anyone who is already linked, and the Westland/Aiel/Sea Folk channelers only need to learn the weave to open the suldam's bracelet and they can render any damane useless.

 

[Axis m'Troutilas]

I'm sorry Kaltoral, but well to put it bluntly that's all pretty much nonsense.

 

[Aulrick Vendour]

Yeah... Not to mention that collaring an Aes Sedai isn't threatning her life, therefor Aes Sedai won't be able to fight the Seanchan with the power AT ALL, due to the 3 oaths... And that's not even the biggest hole in your theory.

 

[Kaltorel]

Thanks for the responses that is why I posted here, I wanted some feedback on this idea. As a quick note, I wasn't talking about absolute numbers, I was just giving a quick example, as I figure the proportions are the same and I just wanted to demonstrate the disadvantage that the Seanchan were at with their collaring practices. Also I'm sorry I should have been more clear about the time frame that I suggest for this massive face to face battle to take place. I am thinking that this is going to happen sometime during Aviendha's viewing, as in after The Last Battle during The Peace of the Dragon that is mentioned. Around this time the Seanchan have had time to go secure their homeland and restore order as well as consolidate their holdings over in Randland. I assume that there are no skirmishes by the Seanchan to run around collaring women who are not within their domain. Now, I made a poor assumption that Toral was very kind to point out, Seanchan is larger than Randland and theoretically should have a higher population due to lack of strife and the unity brought by the Empire. So let me rework the math a bit then and lets see what shakes out, I will also inflate the numbers to somewhat more realistic numbers of channelers.

Randland starts with 10,000 female channelers
Seanchan starts with 20,000 female channelers due to larger geographical size, and greater socioeconomic stability leading to higher population density.

After reviewing the lands that the Seanchan had under their control, I figured that it would be safe to assume that they would stay put with what they had at the end of book 13. I could be very wrong there, but who knows. So after looking at a map, and assuming a somewhat even population density they only control what looks to be 20% of Randland currently therefore giving them access to 20% of Randland's channelers. So the new female numbers shake out like this.

Randland drops to 8,000 female channelers
Seanchan jumps to 22,000 female channelers

Now from this point we make the drop in usable numbers due to their use of the adam.

Randland stays at 8,000 female channelers
Seanchan drops to 5,500 female channelers
5,500 damane
5,500 linked sul'dam
11,000 unused sul'dam

So now we see that even with the increased population to draw from they are at a disadvantage on the numbers side once again. We also have to take into account that since they can't link, and can't link with men, they can't do anything special like create more powerful angreal, or sa'angreal, or ter'angreal. All of those things are beyond them or they are limited to just what a single channeler can do with their own strength. A question I have though is can damane use angreal or sa'angreal? It would seem that they should be able to, but perhaps the adam prevents it? Either way we can see that they are giving up a huge numbers advantage just to use the leashes they so prefer. Now we haven't even added in the men who can channel into the mix, and this is where the Seanchan really begin to fall behind due to their lack of ability to adapt in the area of channelers. But let's assume that they use copies of the domination band that was used on Rand, that means that you need two sul'dam to make use of one male channeler which will work out as follows.

Seanchan have 22,000 male channelers and we reduce that number by the same amount as the female channelers since they are catching the ones born with the spark.
Seanchan drop to 5,500 male channelers.
They use up the 11,000 unused sul'dam

So lets pull out the new totals for both male and female channelers for both sides
Randland: 16,000 combined channelers
Seanchan: 11,000 combined channelers

So now with a more realistic numbers calculation taking into account geography and population density we still see that the Seanchan who should have a monster advantage are once again on the short side due to the way they employ their channelers. Simply put they are not fully utilizing 75% of their channelers, and the ones they are using have some pretty severe restrictions put on them when it comes to working together and innovating in terms of battle as well as creating things like weapons and tools to use and amplify the one power.

Now as to the assertion from Aulrick that the Aes Sedai won't be able to fight with the power at all I can say that we have seen that it is patently false. If the Aes Sedai are in the battle lines and arrows and fireballs are being thrown at them then they will freely defend themselves. But even if we assume that they won't strike back, at the very least they can provide shields of air and counter weaves being cast by damane, even going so far as to form strike groups to capture damane by undoing their leashes and tying them up in weaves of air, then dragging them through a gateway to be kept out of the way. The fact remains that the mobility and independence of the Randland channelers is a strength that will counter what the Seanchan can bring to bear.

So thanks for the feedback, I would really like to read more about what you guys think of this theory now that I have made some more clarifications and changed the numbers around a bit to reflect a more realistic representation of populations. So Aulrick, what was the biggest hole in my theory? Axis, I am curious as to why you think my whole theory is nonsense?

 

[Jaryd Kosari]

On a slight tangent:

It was mentioned in the books that some Aes Sedai speculate that channelers are becoming scarcer and weaker because they are not breeding. This seems to be supported by the strength and number of channelers in cultures where it is not so controlled (The Aiel, the Atha'an Miere, and the Two Rivers) versus the lack of both numbers and strength in Aes Sedai-dominated areas.

This then leads to the question of how on Earth the Seanchan have any channelers at all, since neither sul'dam nor damane breed (nor had a chance to, since they're tested when they are still too young to have children) and they kill their male channelers...and have been doing so for thousands of years. Admittedly there are some exceptions to that rule- for example, I'm going to assume that since Tuon's status as the heir to the Empress trumps her status as a sul'dam, that she would (under normal circumstances) have children to ensure the dynasty continues. However, that seems to be something unique to her/the imperial line.

Thoughts on that one?



On the exact thread topic: What the Seanchan may lack in numbers, they gain in sheer training and brutality. Aes Sedai have not been trained to be weapons (in fact, the exact opposite), while the damane have been trained to be weapons for thousands of years.

 

[Toral Delvar]

I speculated about this years ago and concluded there are several possibilities
1) It isn't a simple single gene trait
2) RJ didn't think it through
3) sul'dam do breed - I don't think we have seen anything to suggest otherwise

If it was a single gene trait, it could be maintained in the population by sul'dam breeding, but as all women are tested, it raises the question of why the Seanchan didn't notice that all damane are either born to sul'dam or to women who could have been sul'dam but declined.

 

[Axis m'Troutilas]

The brute throwing of numbers against each other is highly suspect, even if your numbers are correct.

But if you really want to, dealing with "population rates" like that is a bad way to go about it. What is key, is how many channelers have been trained and ready for immediate action, not how many carrying the trait are in back water villages.

Essentially how successful up until the point of contact the two cultures have been harvesting the population and preparing them for battle.

If there was more time to prepare then yes the potential untrained could be important, but for now its only worth considering those who would be useful in battle.

And there's about about 900 Aes Sedai.
1,783 of the Kin
There was approx 1000 Wises Ones's say minus 200-250 with the Shaido, so call it 750-800 Wise Ones.
Windfinders, hard one to estimate, so lets be nice and say another 1K to be equal with the Wise Ones.
About 400 Asha'men would be a good approximate I think.

So if they all had a friendly party, we'd be looking at somewhere in the vicinity of 4800 Randland channellers currently available as a maximum.

I agree Randland probably has the strength to beat off any initial invasions if they can get organized. (which is easier said than done) Although if Seanchan mobilizes properly and are able to move enough numbers into Randland, it could be a different story.

However the problem is Randland is fragmented, already those initial 4800 have been whittled down quite a bit already by Seanchan collaring. This battle will probably come down to Superior tactics over straight numbers. They break them up taking down areas at a time, they take over population areas using the cities as shields and slowly collar more and more of the enemy.

As long as they don't end up in a straight out fight, the Seanchan should win easily.


Oh and as for how the numbers don't forget about the men who can be taught to channel (male sul'dam). They will never be detected and are probably a big source of keeping the trait alive in Seanchan (and elsewhere really)

Oh and from RJ, some sul'dam are certainly breeding

Interview: Nov 22nd, 2005

Robert Jordan's Blog: I'M BAAAA-AAACK (Verbatim)

Robert Jordan

For kcf, Tuon is stating a misbelief, really, a Seanchan urban folk tale, if you will. The Seanchan no longer know about Foretelling—though they are beginning to hear reports—but they have memories of the knowledge, you might say. There memories have gotten twisted into the widespread belief that any damane can tell your fortune. This belief is strengthened by the fact that some damane actually can Foretell, and more of them than on "this" side of the Aryth Ocean, a facet of sul'dam remaining in the breeding pool with the result that there are a higher percentage of women who potentially could channel among the Seanchan than on the Eastern side of the ocean. And also a higher percentage of many Talents.

 

[Melaine Thayet]

One problem here is that although the Seanchan have a new Empress, their homeland is in absolute turmoil due to the bloodbath created by Semirhage murdering the entire Court. There simply isn't time for the Seanchan to get their act together against the Randland channelers - if there was going to be an all-out battle, it seems more likely that it will only be with the forces already on Randland. They may have time to ship over some damane and sul'dam, but unlikely to be in large numbers. They'd be too busy setting up a new Court etc I reckon.

 

[Kaltorel]

Once again thanks for the responses, I appreciate the information you are bringing in. I once again need to clarify that this theoretical "big battle" would happen during the time of Aviendha's viewings when she passed through the columns in Rhuidean. At this point in time the Last Battle has been fought and the Peace of the Dragon is holding everyone back, but they all see it heading towards war. At this point we can assume that everyone that is trained is trained to fight other channelers and there will be very little in the way of surprises. I would figure that the increased quantity of channelers would start to weigh in favor of the Randlanders, along with their flexibility in movement as well as innovation. Another little tidbit I thought of is what if a fourth oath were added where in the channeler taking the oath promises to never channel or embrace saidar while linked by an adam, and will not reveal why they cannot channel while linked by an adam? Every free channeler might be tempted to take that oath just to deny the Seanchan the ability to gain strength by leashing free women. Worth a shot I think.

And I agree with most of you, at this point in time in the books, the Seanchan have an easy way to win, all they do is just keep taking kingdoms one by one and slowly but surely they gain an insurmountable momentum with numbers and so forth since all of the nations are rather splintered right now. That is mainly why they have had success, they went after notoriously unruly nations with somewhat weak central royalty. I think the strongest country they have taken was Amadicia, and the non Whitecloak soldiers don't seem to be very well trained or maintained. Well those are my thoughts, does anyone have any insights into what would happen with the oaths I mentioned above?

 

[Jell Gordan]

The oaths only affect the Aes Sedai. Seeing there are about 1000 AS at this moment. A fair amount will die in the Last Battle, that's for sure. The other channeling groups aren't affected by the oaths. Since there are 2000 Kinswomen, probably 750 Wise Ones, around 1000 Windfinders and the survivors of the Black Tower. This is a huge amount of people who aren't bound by oaths and can channel freely.
Even if the rest of the Seanchan damane come sailing over the Arythic Ocean, they wouldn't stand a chance. Provided of course that all the channelers in Randland will unite against the Seanchan.

 

[Ghorum Nuchin]

I haven't done a lot of studying of theories etc, these are just my thoughts.

I suspect Aviendha's visions will actually happen. I'm seeing the Seanchan as a reset button: they return Randland to the days of unity like under Hawkwing, but at some point something crazy happens and... more turns of the wheel. Assuming it's still turning after the last battle.
I came to this conclusion after being disappointed seeing all the immigrants moving into Emonds Field, which I figure will dilute the old blood there to near uselessness. To me, that translates as the Wheel/RJ getting rid of a tool that's been used for its purpose. Same for the Aiel in Aviendha's vision, they're a tool that's been used for their purpose, the Wheel doesn't need them any more.

I figure the Seanchan will win based on their military power and tactics, almost regardless of their channeling military. This is probably a bad thing to say, but I compare them to the American military, and everyone knows they get their job done.

I doubt there's any chance the Randland channelers will ever work together. By the time they realize they need to work together they'll be so depleted they don't stand a chance. I doubt anyone will ever want to take any oaths again once it's revealed that doing so shortens their lives, assuming that info is made public, but knowing politicians, it won't be.

There, now I'm up to four posts, rah!

 

[kyloran storm]

I think Aviendha's visions are true in the regard of the Seanchan being able to take over the world. First I think there are a lot more seanchan channelers than in Randland. Ya, maybe only 1/4 of them are being used, but the Seanchan conteinet is three times bigger than Randland, so they would only have a small number disadvantage. Except you have to then add in the sul'dam breed. This keeps the channeling ability going, meaning more channelers. Just think of the sea folk and the Aeil for this. Both societies are relitivly small compared to all of Randland, but both have 1000 channelers, the same number as the Asi Sedi. This is because they breed. So basically the Seanchan actually have many more channelers than Randland, enough that even if they only use 1/4 they still greatly outnumber Randland. And then the Seanchan breeding also seams to promote a higher percentage of talents, and more importantly, stronger channelers. It was extremely rare in Randland for channelers to be as strong as Egwind, Elane, or Nyvane. And I think the only reason they were that strong was because the pattern needed it. (otherwise they would not be that strong or even exist at all) But on multiple ocasions we have Seanchan damane who are very strong. we have the one that is supposed to help kill Rand and she is supposedly almost as strong as Lanfer. And then in the white tower battle, Adelorna is succesfully shielded by some random Damane even when she is holding the power. I would think the Captain General of the Green is a strong channeler, and normally you have to be much stronger than someone to sheild them when they are holding the power. So the random Damane must have been really strong. This says something for the average damane being strong, and how it may not be rare or notable when they are really strong. So to sum it up, we have more Seanchan channalers, who are on average stronger and more skilled. It does not look good for Randland.

And then there is point two. Channelers make up such a small portion of the population (3 percent in the age of ledgends) that a battle or war will not really come to the streanth made up by channelers. It will come to how well the millataries can conduct themselves, how organized they are, how strong of a fighting force. And exemple of this is Athur Hawking. He was able to pen all the Ais Sedi in Randland to Tar Valon, without any channelers of his own. He did this by having a supreme military. It could be argued that the Ais Sedi could not atually fight him so they were obsolete, but 1, they had much more power and influence over the world then, (much more than now), and 2, they probably did not just stand aside and let their power and freedom slip away, im guessing there was at least some fighting. By all accounts the Seanchan have a very formidable military, with better and many more able commandars, the ablinity to organize supply lines, organization in general, and better trained units. Even after Randland stablises after the last battle, all the kindoms will still be fighting seporatly and maybe even against each other some too. So yes, they will be crushed, and it will come down to pockets of resistance like the black and white towers, and pockets can not last forever. The world will eventually be conquared.

But, whats to say the Seanchan will do this, even if they are able? The pattern is unraveling, and it has been obviously noted for a long time, and getting worse. I think at this point it does not know what to do, or what will happen, and all the prophecies will be useless, as it will not be able to forfull them. So it will be up to people and their choices before the last battle, that will decide the outcomes, not the pattern's will. For this I think there is a strong possibility the new Seanchan emperess will be turned to more channeler friendly ideas. And there are multipul ways this can happen. She could channel, and have to either execute herself or change the whole linking idea, she could make a last minute aliance with Rand and Egwind for the last battle, or she could be convinced by her new husband, who dispite his channeling dislike will not stand for more enslaving. So all in all, I dont think it will come to this super battle.

 

[Jell Gordan]

I would like to correct you on point 2.

1) Channelers are a very important part of a battle, just remember Dumais' Well or when Rand fights the Seanchan in PoD. in those fights, a channeler was worth at least a hundred men, or even more.

2) The reason Hawking was superior during his Conquest is because the Aes Sedai didn't fight back with the Power, because they couldn't. The Three Oaths, which have been around since the Trolloc Wars a millenium earlier, forbid them. So they only had an army and Gaidin. And it is know Hawking is superior army to army. If the OP had been used, he wouldn't have won, or not so easily.

And for your last paragraph:
It is mentioned that the new Seanchan Empress, the girl formely known als Tuon, is not the Empress/Emperor who conquers Randland. Someone in the visions mentioned she died and that the new ruler tries to conquer everything. I'm just not sure who says that...

 

[Ghorum Nuchin]

Channelers in battle are a type of soldier/weapon just like anything else on the battle field, they just happen to be very effective and versatile. That General who surprised a Seanchan army at the gates of a city using his soldiers dressed up like commoners in the surrounding fields won that battle without any channelers. All you have to do is find a way to counter their advantage (arrow to the forehead).

Dumai's well was a very channeler heavy battle, at least from what I remember, I don't imagine most armies have that kind of One Power firepower to back them up, unless they expect to encounter strong channeling opposition (like the attack on the tower).

That random channeler who shielded the Green head wenchie might have used tricks or something, or simply slammed weave after weave at the woman and overpowered her. It's mentioned that damane throw weaves *very* fast, because they're trained to be weapons of course, so the unlucky Green may not have been able to block all those shielding weaves. I don't remember exactly what was said, I've only read #13 once and don't have a copy on hand to spend an hour looking up the right info.

I think it'd come down to tactics and strikes against key targets in the end, and the Seanchan are good at that kind of thing. The Aiel could be too but I think their honor system holds them back from strikes like the Seanchan vs the tower. The Seanchan in Aviendha's vision took Rhuidean and kept it, blocking the Aiel from possibly their most sacred site, I think the Aiel have it in their power to snap a few Empress/Emperor necks as well, they probably wouldn't though, because that's dirty fighting.

Seanchan wins. Finish them.

 

[Aulrick Vendour]

I think the Sanchen's disadvantage would be circles. Since they have no male channelers, their circes are limited (do they even know how to create circles?). Also, the empire is built on Suldam and Damane. The moment they understand that there's hardly a difference, things would start to fall apart.

 

[Ivanor Winshaw]

Aulrick - The a'dam is a circle between the suldam and da'mane thus preventing them from forming other circles. I can't site how I know this, but I remember reading it somewhere...

 

[Ghorum Nuchin]

I'd always figured they were a circle of two just hadn't seen that thought confirmed anywhere. That might explain why they appear to be extra powerful vs regular Aes Sedai, not counting their rapid-fire weaving skills.

 

[Aulrick Vendour]

That sounds odd, since such a circle would have shown the Suldam what they truely are. I doubt the could have had the OP pass through them without noticing.
BTW - when an Aes Sedai is leashed, is she able to use the OP as a weapon despite the oaths?

 

[Morrighan Daghdera]

Aulrick, I want to say that they cannot, but I could easily be trouted on that point. I think that they could cause disruptions, much like what Verin & Alanna did in the Two Rivers, but I don't *think* they can blatantly violate the oaths strictly based on wearing the a'dam.